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Royals chances by: Small Market Pride (bluelineswinger2001) Apr 29, 6:27 pm EDT Personally, I predicted that this would be one of three teams (the others being the Brewers and Tigers) that would lose more than 100 games this season in my column. I may have a little extra familiarity with a lot of their pitchers. This is partially due to this league (see 2001... Chris George, along with Chuck's favorite guy to rip on last season, Chad Durbin, were frequent day to day starters on my team), and partially due to the fact that I doubled as the Cardinals (main) and Royals (someone had to do it, and I was closest) Correspondent on the website I write for. Hernandez is for real, and I honestly predicted at the beginning of the year that this kid would be a decent #3/#4 fantasy starter who should win 10-12 (https://www.fantasyinfocentral.com/thehook/001506.php) games with solid ERA and WHIP numbers. He's not for real with his current 1.36 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, but he should keep those in the 3.3/1.25 range when all's said and done. Beyond that, it gets real shaky. At this point, I'd almost be tempted to amend my prediction on Hernandez to see him with 15-18 wins, but 12-15 is a much more likely scenario. George actually wasn't mentioned in my column, as I didn't think he'd be starting the season with the big club. He does still have a world of potential, and he should be harnessing it now that he's in his third stint with the Royals. He's got a decent fastball, a bigtime curve, and good command for his age. He's keeping the ball up too much right now, and if he can do this, he should be able to step it up and continue this early success. They're really going to miss Affeldt, who is starting to seem like a player who may have recurring blisters throughout his entire big league career. He battled this same problem last year and thought his offseason work with Glavine helped, but... no dice. With Affeldt in the rotation, this team could go three strong, but his health is a big question mark. Asencio is too wild and Darrell May is.... well.... Darrell May. For a while last season, May had Chris Michalak (come on... I just know a few of you remember him from a few years ago) written all over him..... he's just a journeyman who never stuck and probably never will, but will enjoy occasional success. While I don't buy into the "Mike MacDougal is going to be a front-line closer" theory, I actually think the Royals have a decent little bullpen. I really like what Carrasco has shown so far, and I think that Kris Wilson and Albie Lopez work well with the roles that they've fallen into in long relief. Neither Wilson or Lopez have ever really thrived as much as they should as starters (actually, this same bill fits MacDougal, who didn't exactly blow hitters away in the minors as a starter), but they're both pitchers who are extremely talented, and can thrive if they pitch in short bursts. The key to the 'pen is Jason Grimsley, who hasn't been much of a surprise to me. Grimsley isn't doing this with smoke and mirrors... he's simply continuing his five year trend. 1999 - 7-2, 3.60 ERA.... 2000 - SUCKED... 2001 - 1-5, 3.02 ERA, and led the Major Leagues in Holds.... 2002 - SUCKED.... 2003 - ????? (Expect him to be solid the rest of the way.... Grimsley's been an "every other year" pitcher) In short, their staff's not bad... I could see them being a strong staff two or three years down the road if the Royals keep them together (don't bet on it). The thing that has impressed me most is that they got off to that amazing start without one of the handful of truly dynamic players that they have on that team (Beltran, who is neck and neck with Sweeney for being their best player). With a healthy Beltran, who knows? Hell... they play in the AL Central, where 90 wins would almost guarantee a shot at the division crown. Still, I'll stick by my preseason pick (actually my preseason AL Champs) and say that the White Sox will win the division. Colon and Buehrle haven't even really been that great (Loaiza has started out hot before... maybe not quite this hot, but he has a history of fast starts), Garland has been god-awful, which is something that should change. Don't even get me started about Billy Koch. They probably have the best offense and could challenge the Twins for the best starting staff in the division (they have the top two starters in the division until Hernandez has a full year under his belt), but they need to do a better job of beating up on the teams that they should beat up on. |